Test order throughput, average ticket and paid counter coverage before choosing a lease. This California profile connects official wage and population benchmarks to a defined operating scenario.
Independent coffee shop without a drive-through
State benchmarks: May / July 2025 · Page prepared September 5, 2026
We examined the available wage records for this independent coffee shop without a drive-through, checked the Census population observations and calculated the staffing implications using the stated wage benchmarks. The results below show what that completed analysis establishes.
The same roster costs $14,924 at the selected California wage benchmarks versus $11,804 at national medians, including the stated employer-cost allowance. This isolates wage differences; it does not compare local rent or customer spending.
Inspect the roles and source rows →The reference operating month exceeds EBIT break-even by 12 orders per trading day. That is the sales margin available before the modeled operating profit disappears.
See the calculation and cash results →| Component | What the evidence establishes | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Wage records and state population | Selected May 2025 occupational records and July 2024/2025 Census estimates, with exact fields and source rows. | Source records checked |
| Paid payroll and break-even | Calculated from observed wage benchmarks and the explicitly modeled roster, employer allowance, price and costs. | Derived result |
| Opening budget and commercial costs | Published fit-out, equipment, occupancy and other allowances define this comparison scenario. State-specific commercial quotes have not yet replaced them. | Reference assumptions |
| Revenue | $35,360 per mature month follows 160 orders per trading day at the stated price. It is not observed sales or a researched state revenue average. | Modeled sales assumptions |
Each test changes one input from the published reference. These are sensitivity tests, not local market forecasts or probability ranges.
| Test | Monthly EBIT | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Published reference | $1,747 | The stated inputs on this page |
| 20% fewer sales units | -$2,921 | 128 orders per trading day; other inputs unchanged |
| 25% higher occupancy cost | $997 | $3,750 per month; other inputs unchanged |
| 10% higher wage rates | $254 | Same paid roster; employer allowance unchanged |
The completed research covers the source observations and analysis described here. The funding and revenue scenarios still contain commercial assumptions; they are not a completed local feasibility study. Read the evidence and its limits.
Published research and calculations support business planning and education. They are not personalized financial, investment, tax or legal advice, and they do not guarantee costs, revenue, profit or financing. Estimates depend on the stated format, location, source periods and assumptions. Check the requirements and commitments that apply to your circumstances.
The methodology was approved on September 6, 2026. The completed work on this page covers wage and population analysis. The opening costs, operating costs and revenue below remain a reference scenario while local commercial evidence is collected.
| Evidence family | Current status | Required work |
|---|---|---|
| Opening costs | Local evidence incomplete | premises scope, fitout, equipment, installation freight tax, deposits, preopening training, opening inventory, contingency |
| Operating costs | Local evidence incomplete | occupancy, utilities, insurance, materials, payment fees, marketing, software administration, maintenance |
| Paid labor and employer costs | Wage benchmark available; employer costs unresolved | paid roster, wages, wage floor overtime, employer taxes, benefits leave, workers compensation, owner role |
| Revenue and collections | Local evidence incomplete | realized price mix, demand volume, capacity, industry cross check, launch ramp, seasonality, collections |
| Permissions and fees | Local evidence incomplete | activity address jurisdiction, initial fees, recurring fees |
A national equipment price may be reused where its configuration, delivery and taxes apply. Missing rent, selling-price or demand evidence cannot be filled with a shared state default. Until that evidence exists, no researched state funding or revenue total is claimed.
The Census estimate for California is 39,355,309 people. It declined by 9,465 between July 2024 and July 2025 (−0.02%). This statewide movement cannot identify a viable frontage or the trading pattern of a neighborhood.
Using the same paid roster, California occupational wages produce $14,924 of monthly loaded payroll. That is +26.44% relative to the identical roster priced with national occupation medians ($11,804). Only wage benchmarks change in this comparison; it does not measure a state’s overall business attractiveness.
BLS wage source · Census population source · Exact fields and workbook rows
Independent coffee shop without a drive-through. A compact leased coffee shop selling espresso drinks, brewed coffee and a limited bought-in food selection.
30 orders per hour × 8 selling hours = 240 orders per day. This assumes a workable bar layout; actual morning peaks need a queue and staffing check.
| Input | Reference assumption |
|---|---|
| orders per trading day | 160 |
| Net selling price per order | $8.50 |
| Trading days / month | 26 |
| Variable cost share | 34% |
| Occupancy / month | $3,000 |
| Other fixed costs / month | $2,300 |
| Employer cost allowance | 18% above base wages |
30% drinks, bought-in food and waste plus 4% payment processing and disposables. Utilities $700; insurance $350; marketing $500; software, cleaning and other operating costs $750 per month.
| Role / SOC | Paid hours / month | Wage benchmark / hour | P25–P75 / hour | Base wages / month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manager coverage11-9051 · Food Service Managers · State observation | 120 | $37.63 | $28.87–$48.17 | $4,516 |
| Barista and counter team35-3023 · Fast Food and Counter Workers · State observation | 400 | $20.33 | $17.69–$21.62 | $8,132 |
Base wages total $12,648 per month. An authored 18% allowance for employer costs adds $2,277, giving $14,924 of loaded payroll. The allowance is a planning shortcut; it is not a California payroll tax calculation or benefits quote.
BLS does not publish a separate barista occupation in this selection. Fast Food and Counter Workers is a broad proxy. The model does not subtract anticipated customer tips. Every operating role is paid, including management or supervision. If the owner performs a modeled role, their compensation occupies that role once; no additional owner draw is included in operating profit.
The middle 50% wage interval describes the occupation’s observed wage distribution. It is not a confidence interval for this business’s total payroll. Allocate the aggregate hours across an actual roster and check wage rules, overtime, leave and employer obligations for the chosen location.
| Use of funds | Cash paid |
|---|---|
| Fit-out, plumbing and electrics | $45,000 |
| Coffee and refrigeration equipment | $26,000 |
| Furniture, POS and smallwares | $11,000 |
| Professional and setup allowance | $5,000 |
| Opening inventory | $2,500 |
| Refundable deposit (two months of occupancy) | $6,000 |
| Paid pre-opening training | $3,444 |
| Total payments before opening | $98,944 |
The equipment and premises allowances are the same in all 50 states for this operating format. They are a comparison baseline and must be replaced with local scopes and quotes. Training uses 120 aggregate paid hours at the modeled team’s weighted loaded rate. The refundable deposit is cash tied up, not an operating expense.
The cash schedule tests 60 months, with sales ramping through 40%, 55%, 70%, 82%, 90%, 96%, 100% of the volume assumption. Full payroll and fixed costs begin in month one. The reserve covers the deepest cumulative operating deficit plus the stated buffer. A buffer is retained cash, not spending and not part of project payback twice.
Customer sales are collected within the month. Opening inventory is funded upfront and its balance is held constant; replenishment is represented in variable expenses. Asset purchases are depreciated over 60 months for this scenario. No sale or deposit recovery is assumed at the end.
At the assumed 160 orders per trading day, the reference scenario produces $1,747 of mature monthly EBIT, a 4.9% operating margin. It requires 148 orders per trading day for EBIT break-even. This result depends on unverified selling price, demand and premises inputs.
| Measure | Monthly amount |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $35,360 |
| Variable operating costs | $12,022 |
| Loaded payroll, including management | $14,924 |
| Occupancy assumption | $3,000 |
| Other fixed operating costs | $2,300 |
| EBITDA | $3,113 |
| Depreciation | $1,367 |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | $1,747 |
| Maintenance capital expenditure | $250 |
| Mature project cash flow | $2,863 |
EBIT break-even revenue is $32,713 per month: $21,591 of fixed costs plus depreciation divided by a 66% contribution margin. At $8.50 per order, that means 148 orders per trading day and 61.7% of the stated capacity.
| Measure | Months 1–12 | Mature month |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $365,269 | $35,360 |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | -$18,013 | $1,747 |
| Project cash flow | -$4,613 | $2,863 |
Project payback occurs in month 49 in this reference schedule. It measures recovery of actual pre-opening payments from cumulative project cash, with no financing or owner distributions. It does not measure cash paid back to an owner.
A menu full of higher-priced drinks does not guarantee an $8.50 average order. Food attachment and discounts matter.
Eight quiet hours cannot compensate for a bottleneck during the main commuter rush.
Change the assumptions to see how this format responds. The sections above remain the published reference, so you can compare your scenario with the original. The full setup and data can be downloaded below.
Reference scenario. JavaScript enables editing and exports.
4,160 orders per month × $8.50 = $35,360 revenue. Loaded payroll: $14,924 per month. Break-even uses 61.7% of capacity.
Download published inputs, sources and calculations (JSON). The download preserves the published scenario and its source references.
Describe drink preparation, on-site food handling, water supply, seating, signage and outdoor service. Ask the address-level authorities which food, building, fire and other approvals apply to that exact scope.
| Workstream | Official starting points | What to ask |
|---|---|---|
| Business and activity | Which entity, name or activity registrations apply, and which local or specialist office also has responsibility? | |
| Tax | Which registrations and treatment apply to the actual goods or services, location and staffing arrangements? | |
| Employers | Which employer accounts, reporting steps and labor obligations apply to the planned paid roster? |
Take the activity, address, proposed equipment and staffing plan to the relevant office. Record applicability, supporting documents, fees, dependencies and renewal terms from the actual official response.
Agency routes were listed on the IRS California directory when retrieved September 5, 2026. Links identify starting offices; they do not verify a permit, tax treatment, fee or opening time for this business. Open the full California opening checklist →
Obtain a lease proposal and equipment list. Verify water treatment, drainage, electrical capacity and service access for the espresso and refrigeration setup.
Identify the local food authority and check the requirements for the actual preparation scope, seating and premises. Adding a kitchen can change both the budget and the approval path.
Test products and prices with a small paid trial or observed comparable trade. Build opening cash around the time required to establish repeat customers.
Plumbing, electricity and equipment installation can dominate the opening budget even when seating is limited.
A fully researched city case for this business in California has not been prepared. The next content improvement is an address-specific evidence pack covering quotes, demand, staffing, collection terms and responsible authorities.
State: California, FIPS 06. Cross-industry, ownership 1235. H_MEDIAN supplies an available hourly benchmark; H_PCT25 and H_PCT75 describe the occupational distribution. 11-9051 (Food Service Managers), state workbook row 2753; 35-3023 (Fast Food and Counter Workers), state workbook row 3156. Retrieved September 5, 2026.
The national comparison uses the same paid roster and these national H_MEDIAN observations: 11-9051, national workbook row 51; 35-3023, national workbook row 699. Any national value substituted for a suppressed state value is identified separately. National observations do not become state observations.
SUMLEV 040; STATE 06; POPESTIMATE2025 and POPESTIMATE2024. July 1 estimates; change and percentage change are calculated within the same vintage. Population is context, not a customer forecast.
OEWS covers employee jobs across industries. It is a statistical benchmark, not a hiring quote or legal wage floor. Employer benefits and overtime premiums are outside the wage measure; tips can be included.
An official route to the state government and major agencies. This directory does not confirm the fees, permits or approval times for a particular address or business.
All selling prices, demand, paid hours, employer allowance, premises, startup allowances, cost shares, ramp and cash buffer are authored planning inputs. No commercial quote or researched state total is implied.
A business format and a state record are joined by stable IDs. The shared calculation computes the outputs, and the template publishes static HTML with the source fields and original inputs. A change to evidence or a format triggers recalculation and review before republication.
Read the content production process →