The Washington bakery reference loses about $2,910 per mature month at 160 assumed paid orders per day. A named Seattle space nearly fills its $6,000 occupancy allowance under a conditional annual-rate calculation, while its advertised floor area conflicts across the broker's own sources. Test 175 paid orders and obtain a complete production-ready lease and fit-out scope before using this address.
Leased retail bakery with on-site production, a focused bread-and-pastry mix and a fully paid production and counter team
State benchmarks: May / July 2025 · Page prepared September 11, 2026
At 160 assumed completed orders per day and a $12.50 achieved net basket, the Washington wage-reference model loses about $2,910 in a mature month. Holding its paid roster, 25 trading days, price and cost shares fixed, 175 paid orders per day would leave only about $95 EBIT. A named Seattle restaurant-space offer has a base and NNN quote close to the model's $6,000 occupancy allowance under an annual-price interpretation, but the broker's web page and PDF disagree on area. Production use, installed utilities and real sell-through are not established by the listing or another bakery's menu.
| Input | Published evidence | Planning use and remaining scope |
|---|---|---|
| Premises offer | The broker lists 5 West Roy Street at $35/SF plus $11/SF NNN. Its web page says 1,544 SF; its April 2026 PDF says 1,554 SF. The PDF describes kitchen potential, not an equipped bakery. Neither source states the price period beside these figures. Sources: CFRE Northwest: Queen Anne restaurant-space listing · CFRE Northwest: Roystone space 4 brochure | If both per-square-foot figures are annual, their sum implies about $5,919–$5,957 monthly at the two listed areas, leaving only $43–$81 against the $6,000 reference occupancy assumption before any unlisted charge. Ask the broker to reconcile area, billing period, NNN scope, kitchen delivery and use; do not enter this as a signed all-in lease. |
| Food and building review | King County describes food-business permits and construction-plan review for retail food operations. Seattle says a food location needs public-health review before building or remodeling, and a change of use can require fuller building review. Sources: Public Health – Seattle & King County: food-business permits · City of Seattle: food-business permit handbook | Submit the proposed on-site bakery product mix, equipment loads, sinks, ventilation and actual address to the relevant offices before treating the $15,000 plan/permit and $125,000 improvement allowances as local costs. The sources do not approve this space or price those scopes. |
| Comparable menu prices | Seattle bakery Sea Wolf lists a whole white sourdough at $12.60, a croissant at $5.35 and a large baguette at $7.95. These are another operator's advertised item prices. Sources: Sea Wolf: direct bakery menu | The model's $12.50 is collected revenue per completed order, not a single product price. Build a basket mix, discounts, payment fees and freshness loss from real transactions; an advertised loaf does not prove 160 or 175 paid orders each day. |
| Production capacity | The broker brochure calls the unit a restaurant space with kitchen potential, and county plan review is separate from that marketing description. No oven, mixer, proofing, refrigeration, drainage or bakery production capacity is specified. Sources: CFRE Northwest: Roystone space 4 brochure · Public Health – Seattle & King County: food-business permits | Price the complete installed equipment and utilities against the model's $95,000 equipment and $20,000 installation allowances. Run a whole-batch schedule and paid sell-through test before treating 175 orders per day as feasible. |
The complete calculator below changes paid orders per trading day, net basket and occupancy together with opening cash and the 60-month schedule. Compare 160 and 175 completed orders; replace the $6,000 occupancy input only with a reconciled full lease quote, and retain the production and sell-through limits. Test the complete financial scenario →
Use the result as a test of one defined format. Leased retail bakery with on-site production, a focused bread-and-pastry mix and a fully paid production and counter team. At unchanged price, cost shares and paid hours, an average of 174.6 completed retail orders per trading day clears modeled EBIT break-even. This is an average across the trading calendar, not a promise that every day sells that many units. Confirm that the complete paid workload can deliver it. The negative reference month clears EBIT only if sufficient paid sales can be delivered at the same contribution, or if price and costs change. Extra opening funds do not remove an ongoing operating loss.
What the wage evidence changes. For the same paid roster, the selected Washington wage benchmarks produce $19,026.32 loaded payroll per month, $3,516.40 above the national roster ($15,509.92). May 2025 BLS state OEWS supplies occupation medians; the page's paid hours and exact source rows turn them into payroll using the assumed 18% employer allowance. The medians describe employee jobs across industries. They are neither a hiring offer nor a statutory wage floor.
Apply the named local case within its scope. The Seattle example retains its cited rules, advertised prices and checked dates. Its city observations do not replace the statewide reference's opening, occupancy or sales inputs unless the stated conditional case supplies the same full cost scope. Compare the complete local case before using the state result at a chosen stop or address.
What is still assumed. Net selling yield, paid sales volume, premises and opening allowances, staffing hours, the employer load, cost shares, operating calendar, ramp and cash buffer are authored planning inputs. A scoped city fee or advertised premises subtotal does not validate all of them.
At the reference sales level, monthly EBITDA is $1,423.68, EBIT after $4,333.33 depreciation is -$2,909.65, and steady-month cash after $1,000.00 maintenance investment is $423.68. Opening payments of $307,283.16 plus $112,234.06 modeled reserve give $419,517.22 funding. The reserve covers the peak modeled deficit and stated buffer; funding is not a researched state startup average or owner income.
The mathematical daily-average thresholds are approximately 152.89 for EBITDA, 174.53 for EBIT and 157.88 for steady-month cash after maintenance, all in completed retail orders per trading day at the same price and cost share. A daily average of 157.9 clears that steady-month cash boundary in this fixed-input model. The cash threshold assumes steady receivables. It does not include new working-capital movements, loan payments, income taxes, owner distributions or recovery of opening cash; the single calculator's 60-month schedule handles the reference ramp and collection timing.
The reference's 160 completed paid retail orders × 25 trading days × $12.50 realized net basket produces $50,000.00 mature monthly revenue. Count one completed customer basket as one order. A basket can contain several items; neither items baked nor individual pastry prices establish paid basket volume or yield.
The paid roster provides 16 production person-hours and 16 counter/utility person-hours per trading day. Build the bread-and-pastry mix backwards from completed baskets: items per basket, saleable batch yield, sell-through and waste determine what must be produced. Check mixing, bench work, proofing, oven loads, cooling, finishing, replenishment and counter service against their own time and space limits, while keeping breaks and cleaning inside paid coverage. The 220-order ceiling remains a planning allowance until the proposed product mix fits those budgets. The 35.9% variable-cost assumption includes the stated ingredients, waste, processing and packaging; do not add the same waste twice.
Of the three one-input tests below, 20% fewer paid sales units has the largest absolute EBIT effect: -$9,319.65 per mature month, a $6,410.00 change from the reference. These tests have different sizes and do not rank probabilities or all business risks.
Compare all three sensitivity tests and their fixed-input scope. Test a valid scenario in the page's calculator, then compare its opening cash and full schedule. The reference copy above keeps its stated inputs when the calculator is edited.
We examined the available wage records for this leased retail bakery with on-site production, a focused bread-and-pastry mix and a fully paid production and counter team, checked the Census population observations and calculated the staffing implications using the stated wage benchmarks. The results below show what that completed analysis establishes.
The same roster costs $19,026 at the selected Washington wage benchmarks versus $15,510 at national medians, including the stated employer-cost allowance. This isolates wage differences; it does not compare local rent or customer spending.
Inspect the roles and source rows →At unchanged price, cost shares and paid hours, an average of 174.6 completed retail orders per trading day clears modeled EBIT break-even. This is an average across the trading calendar, not a promise that every day sells that many units. Confirm that the complete paid workload can deliver it.
See the calculation and cash results →| Component | What the evidence establishes | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Wage records and state population | Selected May 2025 occupational records and July 2024/2025 Census estimates, with exact fields and source rows. | Source records checked |
| Paid payroll and break-even | Calculated from observed wage benchmarks and the explicitly modeled roster, employer allowance, price and costs. | Derived result |
| Opening budget and commercial costs | Published fit-out, equipment, occupancy and other allowances define this comparison scenario. State-specific commercial quotes have not yet replaced them. | Reference assumptions |
| Revenue | $50,000 per mature month follows 160 completed retail orders per trading day at the stated price. It is not observed sales or a researched state revenue average. | Modeled sales assumptions |
Each test changes one input from the published reference. These are sensitivity tests, not local market forecasts or probability ranges.
| Test | Monthly EBIT | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Published reference | -$2,910 | The stated inputs on this page |
| 20% fewer sales units | -$9,320 | 128 completed retail orders per trading day; other inputs unchanged |
| 25% higher occupancy cost | -$4,410 | $7,500 per month; other inputs unchanged |
| 10% higher wage rates | -$4,812 | Same paid roster; employer allowance unchanged |
The completed research covers the source observations and analysis described here. The funding and revenue scenarios still contain commercial assumptions; they are not a completed local feasibility study. Read the evidence and its limits.
Published research and calculations support business planning and education. They are not personalized financial, investment, tax or legal advice, and they do not guarantee costs, revenue, profit or financing. Estimates depend on the stated format, location, source periods and assumptions. Check the requirements and commitments that apply to your circumstances.
This completed planning profile combines checked state wage and population sources with a transparent financial scenario. Use its opening-cost, operating-cost and revenue figures as planning inputs, then replace location-sensitive assumptions when evaluating a specific address or service area.
| Evidence family | Published basis | What to confirm locally |
|---|---|---|
| Opening costs | Published planning inputs — replace with local quotes | premises scope, fitout, equipment, installation freight tax, deposits, preopening training, opening inventory, contingency |
| Operating costs | Published planning inputs — replace with local quotes | occupancy, utilities, insurance, materials, payment fees, marketing, software administration, maintenance |
| Paid labor and employer costs | State wage benchmark used — confirm employer costs | paid roster, wages, wage floor overtime, employer taxes, benefits leave, workers compensation, owner role |
| Revenue and collections | Published planning inputs — validate price and demand locally | realized price mix, demand volume, capacity, industry cross check, launch ramp, seasonality, collections |
| Permissions and fees | Confirm for the selected address | activity address jurisdiction, initial fees, recurring fees |
National equipment prices can support the plan where configuration, delivery and taxes match the intended purchase. Confirm rent, selling prices, demand and permissions for the actual location instead of applying a generic state adjustment.
The Census estimate for Washington is 8,001,020 people. It grew by 73,062 between July 2024 and July 2025 (+0.92%). This statewide movement cannot identify a viable catchment, product sell-through or realized basket.
Using the same paid roster, Washington occupational wages produce $19,026 of monthly loaded payroll. That is +22.67% relative to the identical roster priced with national occupation medians ($15,510). Only wage benchmarks change in this comparison; it does not measure a state’s overall business attractiveness.
BLS wage source · Census population source · Exact fields and workbook rows
Leased retail bakery with on-site production, a focused bread-and-pastry mix and a fully paid production and counter team. A neighborhood retail bakery producing a focused bread-and-pastry range on site and selling it directly through a staffed counter.
The authored production plan uses a 220-order daily ceiling and a base case of 160 completed retail orders. The ceiling is a planning assumption, not a measured batch study or demand forecast. The actual limit is the lowest whole-order result supported by product mix, batch yields, paid production time, mixer and bench work, proofing, oven load, cooling, finishing, display replenishment and counter service. Finished goods are not earned revenue until customers buy them.
| Input | Reference assumption |
|---|---|
| completed retail orders per trading day | 160 |
| Net selling price per completed retail order | $12.50 |
| Trading days / month | 25 |
| Variable cost share | 35.9% |
| Occupancy / month | $6,000 |
| Other fixed costs / month | $5,600 |
| Employer cost allowance | 18% above base wages |
29% ingredients, ordinary batch loss and packaging plus 3.9% payment fees and 3% freshness, discount and discard allowance; paid production and counter work remain in payroll. Utilities $2,000; insurance $700; software and administration $1,100; marketing $1,000; cleaning, waste, pest control and miscellaneous costs $800 per month. Maintenance investment is modeled separately at $1,000 per month.
| Role / SOC | Paid hours / month | Wage benchmark / hour | P25–P75 / hour | Base wages / month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production lead and baker coverage51-3011 · Bakers · State observation | 400 | $22.18 | $18.70–$24.72 | $8,872 |
| Two paid counter and utility workers35-3023 · Fast Food and Counter Workers · State observation | 400 | $18.13 | $17.25–$21.27 | $7,252 |
Base wages total $16,124 per month. An authored 18% allowance for employer costs adds $2,902, giving $19,026 of loaded payroll. The allowance is a planning shortcut; it is not a state-specific payroll tax calculation or benefits quote for Washington.
Bakers is the production wage benchmark and Fast Food and Counter Workers is a broad retail-counter proxy. They do not establish a local hiring quote, skill mix, lawful schedule or employer obligation. The production lead, baker coverage and two counter and utility roles are paid across the complete production, retail and sanitation day; no owner labor is used to create capacity. Every operating role is paid, including management or supervision. If the owner performs a modeled role, their compensation occupies that role once; no additional owner draw is included in operating profit.
The middle 50% wage interval describes the occupation’s observed wage distribution. It is not a confidence interval for this business’s total payroll. Allocate the aggregate hours across an actual roster and check wage rules, overtime, leave and employer obligations for the chosen location.
| Use of funds | Cash paid |
|---|---|
| Design, plan-review and permit allowance | $15,000 |
| Tenant improvements and production utilities | $125,000 |
| Production, retail and dishwashing equipment | $95,000 |
| Equipment installation, freight and tax | $20,000 |
| Smallwares and opening inventory | $8,000 |
| Opening contingency | $30,000 |
| Refundable deposit (two months of occupancy) | $12,000 |
| Paid pre-opening training | $2,283 |
| Total payments before opening | $307,283 |
The equipment and premises allowances are the same in all 50 states for this operating format. They are a comparison baseline and must be replaced with local scopes and quotes. Training uses 96 aggregate paid hours at the modeled team’s weighted loaded rate. The refundable deposit is cash tied up, not an operating expense.
The cash schedule tests 60 months, with sales ramping through 40%, 55%, 70%, 82%, 90%, 96%, 100% of the volume assumption. Full payroll and fixed costs begin in month one. The reserve covers the deepest cumulative operating deficit plus the stated buffer. A buffer is retained cash, not spending and not part of project payback twice.
The reference assumes card or cash collection when a retail order is completed. Pre-orders, customer deposits, refunds, wholesale accounts, delivery-platform settlements and gift balances need separate earned-revenue, liability and collection schedules. Opening ingredients and packaging are funded upfront; replenishment is represented in variable costs. Asset purchases are depreciated over 60 months for this scenario. No sale or deposit recovery is assumed at the end.
At the assumed 160 completed retail orders per trading day, the reference scenario loses $2,910 per mature month after paid labor and depreciation. The approximate EBIT break-even threshold is 174.5 completed retail orders per trading day. More starting cash alone does not solve that operating gap.
| Measure | Monthly amount |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $50,000 |
| Variable operating costs | $17,950 |
| Loaded payroll, including management | $19,026 |
| Occupancy assumption | $6,000 |
| Other fixed operating costs | $5,600 |
| EBITDA | $1,424 |
| Depreciation | $4,333 |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | -$2,910 |
| Maintenance capital expenditure | $1,000 |
| Mature project cash flow | $424 |
EBIT break-even revenue is $54,539 per month: $34,960 of fixed costs plus depreciation divided by a 64.1% contribution margin. At $12.50 per completed retail order, that means 174.5 completed retail orders per trading day and 79.3% of the stated capacity.
| Measure | Months 1–12 | Mature month |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $516,500 | $50,000 |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | -$88,439 | -$2,910 |
| Project cash flow | -$48,439 | $424 |
Project payback is not reached within the 60-month reference schedule. It measures recovery of actual pre-opening payments from cumulative project cash, with no financing or owner distributions. It does not measure cash paid back to an owner.
A full rack or display creates inventory. Only sold products inside completed orders create earned retail revenue.
Additional recipes compete for mixer, bench, proofing, oven, cooling, finishing, display and paid labor time.
Change the assumptions to see how this format responds. The sections above remain the published reference, so you can compare your scenario with the original. Use the browser-local export buttons below to save only the scenario you are working on.
Reference scenario. JavaScript enables editing and exports.
4,000 completed retail orders per month × $12.50 = $50,000 revenue. Loaded payroll: $19,026 per month. Break-even uses 79.3% of capacity.
The download preserves the published scenario and its source references.
Describe the exact retail and on-site production scope, product range, ingredients and allergens, packaging or labeling, layout, equipment schedule, power or gas, ventilation, water, drainage, refrigeration, storage, deliveries, waste, pest control, customer seating if any, operating hours and paid roster. Ask the responsible state and local offices which business, food, premises, fire, building, employer, tax and product-specific requirements apply to the actual address and sales channels.
| Workstream | Official starting points | What to ask |
|---|---|---|
| Business and activity | Which entity, name or activity registrations apply, and which local or specialist office also has responsibility? | |
| Tax | Which registrations and treatment apply to the actual goods or services, location and staffing arrangements? | |
| Employers | Which employer accounts, reporting steps and labor obligations apply to the planned paid roster? |
Take the activity, address, proposed equipment and staffing plan to the relevant office. Record applicability, supporting documents, fees, dependencies and renewal terms from the actual official response.
Agency routes were listed on the IRS Washington directory when retrieved September 5, 2026. Links identify starting offices; they do not verify a permit, tax treatment, fee or opening time for this business. Open the full Washington opening checklist →
Fix the bread-and-pastry range, batch size, saleable yield, realized prices, packaging, hold times, discount and discard rules. Map whole batches and paid work through every production stage and retail interval.
Obtain a measured fit-out and installed-equipment scope covering power or gas, ventilation, fire route, water, drainage, refrigeration, sinks, finishes, deliveries, storage, waste and customer flow. Resolve the actual use with the landlord, utilities and responsible food, building and fire authorities.
Produce the focused mix in a lawful test setting. Record finished, saleable, sold, discounted and discarded items, completed orders, realized baskets, paid hours and equipment exceptions before increasing the range or committing to the premises.
The actual equipment loads, ventilation, fire systems, water, drainage, finishes and production use determine whether the address is usable.
For a selected address or service area, collect an evidence pack covering premises and equipment quotes, paid demand, staffing, collection terms and the responsible authorities. The state wage and population evidence on this page does not supply those location-specific inputs.
State: Washington, FIPS 53. Cross-industry, ownership 1235. H_MEDIAN supplies an available hourly benchmark; H_PCT25 and H_PCT75 describe the occupational distribution. 51-3011 (Bakers), state workbook row 34318; 35-3023 (Fast Food and Counter Workers), state workbook row 34079. Retrieved September 5, 2026.
The national comparison uses the same paid roster and these national H_MEDIAN observations: 51-3011, national workbook row 1167; 35-3023, national workbook row 699. Any national value substituted for a suppressed state value is identified separately. National observations do not become state observations.
SUMLEV 040; STATE 53; POPESTIMATE2025 and POPESTIMATE2024. July 1 estimates; change and percentage change are calculated within the same vintage. Population is context, not a customer forecast.
OEWS covers employee jobs across industries. It is a statistical benchmark, not a hiring quote or legal wage floor. Employer benefits and overtime premiums are outside the wage measure; tips can be included.
An official route to the state government and major agencies. This directory does not confirm the fees, permits or approval times for a particular address or business.
All selling prices, demand, paid hours, employer allowance, premises, startup allowances, cost shares, ramp and cash buffer are authored planning inputs. No commercial quote or researched state total is implied.
Broker page inspected September 17, 2026. 5 West Roy Street lists 1,544 SF, $35/SF base and $11/SF NNN. The area conflicts with the linked brochure. Availability and bakery production use need confirmation.
April 2026 broker brochure inspected September 17, 2026. The brochure lists 1,554 SF at the same $35/SF plus $11/SF NNN figures and says kitchen potential. It does not verify a production-ready bakery.
County guidance inspected September 17, 2026. The county explains food-business permits and retail-food construction-plan review; the correct classification, application fees and approved equipment depend on the proposed operation.
City guidance inspected September 17, 2026. Food business premises require public-health and building/use review appropriate to the actual construction and use. The page does not approve the named suite.
The stated operating format and paid roster define the scenario. Wage and population observations keep their geography and period. Replace commercial assumptions only with evidence that matches the scope, then reconcile the same inputs across earnings, cash and the delivery schedule.
Plan your next evidence check →