The Michigan bakery reference earns about $1,423 EBIT per mature month at 160 assumed paid orders per day, but falls to about -$580 at 150. A Detroit commercial suite lists $2,500 monthly rent before its complete occupancy and bakery build-out costs are known. Confirm the retail-versus-food-service licensing route and a real paid basket before replacing the reference inputs.
Leased retail bakery with on-site production, a focused bread-and-pastry mix and a fully paid production and counter team
State benchmarks: May / July 2025 · Page prepared September 11, 2026
The wage-reference model has only about seven paid orders per day above its 152.9-order EBIT break-even point. At 150 orders per trading day, with its $12.50 net basket and full paid roster unchanged, a mature month loses about $580. Detroit has a named 2,300-square-foot restaurant/café suite offered at $2,500 monthly and a local dessert bakery lists a $5 cinnamon roll, but neither proves the focused bread-and-pastry format's all-in occupancy, installed production line or achieved $12.50 order basket.
| Input | Published evidence | Planning use and remaining scope |
|---|---|---|
| Licensing route | Michigan identifies a retail bakery that primarily sells or manufactures food as a Food Establishment license handled by MDARD. Food prepared primarily for immediate consumption follows a local health-department food-service route. Detroit requires food-safety plan review before construction for applicable food establishments. Sources: Michigan MDARD: Food Establishment license · Detroit Health Department: food-safety plan review | Fix the proposed bread, pastry, beverage and service mix, then confirm the responsible regulator and plan path in writing. Do not treat one agency's fee or plan approval as permission for the other activity. The reference's $15,000 design/permit allowance is not a quoted Detroit total. |
| Premises offer | A broker listing offers commercial Suite 101 at 9301 Oakland Street: 2,300 square feet, $2,500 per month and a three-year minimum lease. It is marketed for a restaurant or café and ready for build-out, with 400-amp service and plumbing for two restrooms. Sources: Coldwell Banker / listing broker: 9301 Oakland Street | The advertised rent leaves $3,500 inside the model's $6,000 occupancy assumption for every unpriced property charge and lease condition. Bakery production permission, NNN or service charges, ventilation, sinks, drainage and installed equipment remain unverified. Do not substitute the base rent as all-in occupancy. |
| Local item price | Detroit's Good Cakes and Bakes lists a cinnamon roll for $5. Its dessert-led menu differs from the modeled focused bread-and-pastry assortment. Sources: Good Cakes and Bakes: Livernois Avenue menu | The $12.50 model input is achieved revenue per completed order, not the price of one roll. Test a compatible product mix, multi-item baskets, discounts, discard and paid transactions; no menu listing supplies the assumed 160 orders per day. |
| Opening scope | The space is offered ready for build-out, while Detroit's review requires a submitted and approved food plan before construction for applicable operations. Neither source prices a production-ready oven, mixer, proofing, refrigeration, fire and utility installation. Sources: Coldwell Banker / listing broker: 9301 Oakland Street · Detroit Health Department: food-safety plan review | Obtain a drawn production layout and installed contractor quotes against the $125,000 improvement, $95,000 equipment and $20,000 installation allowances. Test whole-batch output, paid hours and sell-through before calling the 160-order day feasible. |
Use the complete calculator to compare 160 and 150 paid orders per trading day while retaining the full roster. Enter a reconciled total occupancy quote and installed opening costs only after the proposed suite and licensing route are confirmed; a base listing is not the model's all-in rent input. Test the complete financial scenario →
Use the result as a test of one defined format. Leased retail bakery with on-site production, a focused bread-and-pastry mix and a fully paid production and counter team. At unchanged price, cost shares and paid hours, an average of 152.9 completed retail orders per trading day clears modeled EBIT break-even. This is an average across the trading calendar, not a promise that every day sells that many units. Confirm that the complete paid workload can deliver it. The positive reference month turns negative below the exact EBIT sales threshold, or when price, contribution, payroll or occupancy no longer supports it.
What the wage evidence changes. For the same paid roster, the selected Michigan wage benchmarks produce $14,693.36 loaded payroll per month, $816.56 below the national roster ($15,509.92). May 2025 BLS state OEWS supplies occupation medians; the page's paid hours and exact source rows turn them into payroll using the assumed 18% employer allowance. The medians describe employee jobs across industries. They are neither a hiring offer nor a statutory wage floor.
Apply the named local case within its scope. The Detroit example retains its cited rules, advertised prices and checked dates. Its city observations do not replace the statewide reference's opening, occupancy or sales inputs unless the stated conditional case supplies the same full cost scope. Compare the complete local case before using the state result at a chosen stop or address.
What is still assumed. Net selling yield, paid sales volume, premises and opening allowances, staffing hours, the employer load, cost shares, operating calendar, ramp and cash buffer are authored planning inputs. A scoped city fee or advertised premises subtotal does not validate all of them.
At the reference sales level, monthly EBITDA is $5,756.64, EBIT after $4,333.33 depreciation is $1,423.31, and steady-month cash after $1,000.00 maintenance investment is $4,756.64. Opening payments of $306,763.20 plus $82,596.66 modeled reserve give $389,359.86 funding. The reserve covers the peak modeled deficit and stated buffer; funding is not a researched state startup average or owner income.
The mathematical daily-average thresholds are approximately 131.26 for EBITDA, 152.89 for EBIT and 136.25 for steady-month cash after maintenance, all in completed retail orders per trading day at the same price and cost share. A daily average of 136.3 clears that steady-month cash boundary in this fixed-input model. The cash threshold assumes steady receivables. It does not include new working-capital movements, loan payments, income taxes, owner distributions or recovery of opening cash; the single calculator's 60-month schedule handles the reference ramp and collection timing.
The reference's 160 completed paid retail orders × 25 trading days × $12.50 realized net basket produces $50,000.00 mature monthly revenue. Count one completed customer basket as one order. A basket can contain several items; neither items baked nor individual pastry prices establish paid basket volume or yield.
The paid roster provides 16 production person-hours and 16 counter/utility person-hours per trading day. Build the bread-and-pastry mix backwards from completed baskets: items per basket, saleable batch yield, sell-through and waste determine what must be produced. Check mixing, bench work, proofing, oven loads, cooling, finishing, replenishment and counter service against their own time and space limits, while keeping breaks and cleaning inside paid coverage. The 220-order ceiling remains a planning allowance until the proposed product mix fits those budgets. The 35.9% variable-cost assumption includes the stated ingredients, waste, processing and packaging; do not add the same waste twice.
Of the three one-input tests below, 20% fewer paid sales units has the largest absolute EBIT effect: -$4,986.69 per mature month, a $6,410.00 change from the reference. These tests have different sizes and do not rank probabilities or all business risks.
Compare all three sensitivity tests and their fixed-input scope. Test a valid scenario in the page's calculator, then compare its opening cash and full schedule. The reference copy above keeps its stated inputs when the calculator is edited.
We examined the available wage records for this leased retail bakery with on-site production, a focused bread-and-pastry mix and a fully paid production and counter team, checked the Census population observations and calculated the staffing implications using the stated wage benchmarks. The results below show what that completed analysis establishes.
The same roster costs $14,693 at the selected Michigan wage benchmarks versus $15,510 at national medians, including the stated employer-cost allowance. This isolates wage differences; it does not compare local rent or customer spending.
Inspect the roles and source rows →At unchanged price, cost shares and paid hours, an average of 152.9 completed retail orders per trading day clears modeled EBIT break-even. This is an average across the trading calendar, not a promise that every day sells that many units. Confirm that the complete paid workload can deliver it.
See the calculation and cash results →| Component | What the evidence establishes | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Wage records and state population | Selected May 2025 occupational records and July 2024/2025 Census estimates, with exact fields and source rows. | Source records checked |
| Paid payroll and break-even | Calculated from observed wage benchmarks and the explicitly modeled roster, employer allowance, price and costs. | Derived result |
| Opening budget and commercial costs | Published fit-out, equipment, occupancy and other allowances define this comparison scenario. State-specific commercial quotes have not yet replaced them. | Reference assumptions |
| Revenue | $50,000 per mature month follows 160 completed retail orders per trading day at the stated price. It is not observed sales or a researched state revenue average. | Modeled sales assumptions |
Each test changes one input from the published reference. These are sensitivity tests, not local market forecasts or probability ranges.
| Test | Monthly EBIT | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Published reference | $1,423 | The stated inputs on this page |
| 20% fewer sales units | -$4,987 | 128 completed retail orders per trading day; other inputs unchanged |
| 25% higher occupancy cost | -$77 | $7,500 per month; other inputs unchanged |
| 10% higher wage rates | -$46 | Same paid roster; employer allowance unchanged |
The completed research covers the source observations and analysis described here. The funding and revenue scenarios still contain commercial assumptions; they are not a completed local feasibility study. Read the evidence and its limits.
Published research and calculations support business planning and education. They are not personalized financial, investment, tax or legal advice, and they do not guarantee costs, revenue, profit or financing. Estimates depend on the stated format, location, source periods and assumptions. Check the requirements and commitments that apply to your circumstances.
This completed planning profile combines checked state wage and population sources with a transparent financial scenario. Use its opening-cost, operating-cost and revenue figures as planning inputs, then replace location-sensitive assumptions when evaluating a specific address or service area.
| Evidence family | Published basis | What to confirm locally |
|---|---|---|
| Opening costs | Published planning inputs — replace with local quotes | premises scope, fitout, equipment, installation freight tax, deposits, preopening training, opening inventory, contingency |
| Operating costs | Published planning inputs — replace with local quotes | occupancy, utilities, insurance, materials, payment fees, marketing, software administration, maintenance |
| Paid labor and employer costs | State wage benchmark used — confirm employer costs | paid roster, wages, wage floor overtime, employer taxes, benefits leave, workers compensation, owner role |
| Revenue and collections | Published planning inputs — validate price and demand locally | realized price mix, demand volume, capacity, industry cross check, launch ramp, seasonality, collections |
| Permissions and fees | Confirm for the selected address | activity address jurisdiction, initial fees, recurring fees |
National equipment prices can support the plan where configuration, delivery and taxes match the intended purchase. Confirm rent, selling prices, demand and permissions for the actual location instead of applying a generic state adjustment.
The Census estimate for Michigan is 10,127,884 people. It grew by 27,922 between July 2024 and July 2025 (+0.28%). This statewide movement cannot identify a viable catchment, product sell-through or realized basket.
Using the same paid roster, Michigan occupational wages produce $14,693 of monthly loaded payroll. That is −5.26% relative to the identical roster priced with national occupation medians ($15,510). Only wage benchmarks change in this comparison; it does not measure a state’s overall business attractiveness.
BLS wage source · Census population source · Exact fields and workbook rows
Leased retail bakery with on-site production, a focused bread-and-pastry mix and a fully paid production and counter team. A neighborhood retail bakery producing a focused bread-and-pastry range on site and selling it directly through a staffed counter.
The authored production plan uses a 220-order daily ceiling and a base case of 160 completed retail orders. The ceiling is a planning assumption, not a measured batch study or demand forecast. The actual limit is the lowest whole-order result supported by product mix, batch yields, paid production time, mixer and bench work, proofing, oven load, cooling, finishing, display replenishment and counter service. Finished goods are not earned revenue until customers buy them.
| Input | Reference assumption |
|---|---|
| completed retail orders per trading day | 160 |
| Net selling price per completed retail order | $12.50 |
| Trading days / month | 25 |
| Variable cost share | 35.9% |
| Occupancy / month | $6,000 |
| Other fixed costs / month | $5,600 |
| Employer cost allowance | 18% above base wages |
29% ingredients, ordinary batch loss and packaging plus 3.9% payment fees and 3% freshness, discount and discard allowance; paid production and counter work remain in payroll. Utilities $2,000; insurance $700; software and administration $1,100; marketing $1,000; cleaning, waste, pest control and miscellaneous costs $800 per month. Maintenance investment is modeled separately at $1,000 per month.
| Role / SOC | Paid hours / month | Wage benchmark / hour | P25–P75 / hour | Base wages / month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production lead and baker coverage51-3011 · Bakers · State observation | 400 | $17.22 | $14.82–$18.91 | $6,888 |
| Two paid counter and utility workers35-3023 · Fast Food and Counter Workers · State observation | 400 | $13.91 | $13.26–$15.75 | $5,564 |
Base wages total $12,452 per month. An authored 18% allowance for employer costs adds $2,241, giving $14,693 of loaded payroll. The allowance is a planning shortcut; it is not a state-specific payroll tax calculation or benefits quote for Michigan.
Bakers is the production wage benchmark and Fast Food and Counter Workers is a broad retail-counter proxy. They do not establish a local hiring quote, skill mix, lawful schedule or employer obligation. The production lead, baker coverage and two counter and utility roles are paid across the complete production, retail and sanitation day; no owner labor is used to create capacity. Every operating role is paid, including management or supervision. If the owner performs a modeled role, their compensation occupies that role once; no additional owner draw is included in operating profit.
The middle 50% wage interval describes the occupation’s observed wage distribution. It is not a confidence interval for this business’s total payroll. Allocate the aggregate hours across an actual roster and check wage rules, overtime, leave and employer obligations for the chosen location.
| Use of funds | Cash paid |
|---|---|
| Design, plan-review and permit allowance | $15,000 |
| Tenant improvements and production utilities | $125,000 |
| Production, retail and dishwashing equipment | $95,000 |
| Equipment installation, freight and tax | $20,000 |
| Smallwares and opening inventory | $8,000 |
| Opening contingency | $30,000 |
| Refundable deposit (two months of occupancy) | $12,000 |
| Paid pre-opening training | $1,763 |
| Total payments before opening | $306,763 |
The equipment and premises allowances are the same in all 50 states for this operating format. They are a comparison baseline and must be replaced with local scopes and quotes. Training uses 96 aggregate paid hours at the modeled team’s weighted loaded rate. The refundable deposit is cash tied up, not an operating expense.
The cash schedule tests 60 months, with sales ramping through 40%, 55%, 70%, 82%, 90%, 96%, 100% of the volume assumption. Full payroll and fixed costs begin in month one. The reserve covers the deepest cumulative operating deficit plus the stated buffer. A buffer is retained cash, not spending and not part of project payback twice.
The reference assumes card or cash collection when a retail order is completed. Pre-orders, customer deposits, refunds, wholesale accounts, delivery-platform settlements and gift balances need separate earned-revenue, liability and collection schedules. Opening ingredients and packaging are funded upfront; replenishment is represented in variable costs. Asset purchases are depreciated over 60 months for this scenario. No sale or deposit recovery is assumed at the end.
At the assumed 160 completed retail orders per trading day, the reference scenario produces $1,423 of mature monthly EBIT, a 2.8% operating margin. Its continuous EBIT threshold is approximately 152.9 completed retail orders per trading day for EBIT break-even. This result depends on unverified selling price, demand and premises inputs.
| Measure | Monthly amount |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $50,000 |
| Variable operating costs | $17,950 |
| Loaded payroll, including management | $14,693 |
| Occupancy assumption | $6,000 |
| Other fixed operating costs | $5,600 |
| EBITDA | $5,757 |
| Depreciation | $4,333 |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | $1,423 |
| Maintenance capital expenditure | $1,000 |
| Mature project cash flow | $4,757 |
EBIT break-even revenue is $47,780 per month: $30,627 of fixed costs plus depreciation divided by a 64.1% contribution margin. At $12.50 per completed retail order, that means 152.9 completed retail orders per trading day and 69.5% of the stated capacity.
| Measure | Months 1–12 | Mature month |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $516,500 | $50,000 |
| Operating profit (EBIT) | -$36,444 | $1,423 |
| Project cash flow | $3,556 | $4,757 |
Project payback is not reached within the 60-month reference schedule. It measures recovery of actual pre-opening payments from cumulative project cash, with no financing or owner distributions. It does not measure cash paid back to an owner.
A full rack or display creates inventory. Only sold products inside completed orders create earned retail revenue.
Additional recipes compete for mixer, bench, proofing, oven, cooling, finishing, display and paid labor time.
Change the assumptions to see how this format responds. The sections above remain the published reference, so you can compare your scenario with the original. Use the browser-local export buttons below to save only the scenario you are working on.
Reference scenario. JavaScript enables editing and exports.
4,000 completed retail orders per month × $12.50 = $50,000 revenue. Loaded payroll: $14,693 per month. Break-even uses 69.5% of capacity.
The download preserves the published scenario and its source references.
Describe the exact retail and on-site production scope, product range, ingredients and allergens, packaging or labeling, layout, equipment schedule, power or gas, ventilation, water, drainage, refrigeration, storage, deliveries, waste, pest control, customer seating if any, operating hours and paid roster. Ask the responsible state and local offices which business, food, premises, fire, building, employer, tax and product-specific requirements apply to the actual address and sales channels.
| Workstream | Official starting points | What to ask |
|---|---|---|
| Business and activity | Which entity, name or activity registrations apply, and which local or specialist office also has responsibility? | |
| Tax | Which registrations and treatment apply to the actual goods or services, location and staffing arrangements? | |
| Employers | Which employer accounts, reporting steps and labor obligations apply to the planned paid roster? |
Take the activity, address, proposed equipment and staffing plan to the relevant office. Record applicability, supporting documents, fees, dependencies and renewal terms from the actual official response.
Agency routes were listed on the IRS Michigan directory when retrieved September 5, 2026. Links identify starting offices; they do not verify a permit, tax treatment, fee or opening time for this business. Open the full Michigan opening checklist →
Fix the bread-and-pastry range, batch size, saleable yield, realized prices, packaging, hold times, discount and discard rules. Map whole batches and paid work through every production stage and retail interval.
Obtain a measured fit-out and installed-equipment scope covering power or gas, ventilation, fire route, water, drainage, refrigeration, sinks, finishes, deliveries, storage, waste and customer flow. Resolve the actual use with the landlord, utilities and responsible food, building and fire authorities.
Produce the focused mix in a lawful test setting. Record finished, saleable, sold, discounted and discarded items, completed orders, realized baskets, paid hours and equipment exceptions before increasing the range or committing to the premises.
The actual equipment loads, ventilation, fire systems, water, drainage, finishes and production use determine whether the address is usable.
For a selected address or service area, collect an evidence pack covering premises and equipment quotes, paid demand, staffing, collection terms and the responsible authorities. The state wage and population evidence on this page does not supply those location-specific inputs.
State: Michigan, FIPS 26. Cross-industry, ownership 1235. H_MEDIAN supplies an available hourly benchmark; H_PCT25 and H_PCT75 describe the occupational distribution. 51-3011 (Bakers), state workbook row 16253; 35-3023 (Fast Food and Counter Workers), state workbook row 16006. Retrieved September 5, 2026.
The national comparison uses the same paid roster and these national H_MEDIAN observations: 51-3011, national workbook row 1167; 35-3023, national workbook row 699. Any national value substituted for a suppressed state value is identified separately. National observations do not become state observations.
SUMLEV 040; STATE 26; POPESTIMATE2025 and POPESTIMATE2024. July 1 estimates; change and percentage change are calculated within the same vintage. Population is context, not a customer forecast.
OEWS covers employee jobs across industries. It is a statistical benchmark, not a hiring quote or legal wage floor. Employer benefits and overtime premiums are outside the wage measure; tips can be included.
An official route to the state government and major agencies. This directory does not confirm the fees, permits or approval times for a particular address or business.
All selling prices, demand, paid hours, employer allowance, premises, startup allowances, cost shares, ramp and cash buffer are authored planning inputs. No commercial quote or researched state total is implied.
State guidance inspected September 17, 2026. Retail bakery is named in the MDARD food-establishment category; food prepared primarily for immediate consumption uses a local health department's food-service route. Exact activity controls.
City guidance inspected September 17, 2026. Applicable new or remodeled food establishments need submitted plan review and approval before construction. The city's approval is not every other agency's approval.
Broker listing inspected September 17, 2026. Suite 101 is offered as 2,300 SF for restaurant/café use at $2,500 per month with a three-year minimum; full occupancy charges, approvals and bakery fit-out are not listed.
The stated operating format and paid roster define the scenario. Wage and population observations keep their geography and period. Replace commercial assumptions only with evidence that matches the scope, then reconcile the same inputs across earnings, cash and the delivery schedule.
Plan your next evidence check →